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3 docs tagged with "forecasting"

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Classical Forecasting Models

Exponential smoothing and ARIMA predate machine learning by decades and still win a great many forecasting competitions — particularly on short, clean, single series where a gradient-boosted model has nothing to learn from.

Machine Learning for Forecasting

To use a gradient-boosted tree or a neural network on a time series, you first have to turn the series into a table of rows and columns. That reframing — and the leakage it invites — is most of the work.

What Makes Time Series Different

Almost everything in Foundations assumes your observations are independent and identically distributed — that shuffling the rows changes nothing. Time series violates that assumption in the first sentence: the order is the signal. Every technique in this section exists because that one assumption fails.